Batam - Heavy rains in the next week were predicted by the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) to occur in several parts of Indonesia. BMKG also analyzed the effect of the initial phase of La Nina.

BMKG Deputy for Meteorology, Guswanto in a written statement said that currently, the La Nina phenomenon is happening in the Pacific Ocean with moderate intensity.

"BMKG monitoring of marine and atmospheric indicators shows sea surface temperature has cooled -0.5C to -1.5C during the last 70 days, followed by the dominance of zonal flows of the easterly wind which represents the strengthening of the trade winds," he said, as quoted by Batamnews, Sunday ( 18/10/2020).

For Indonesia, La Nina which occurs in the early rainy season has the potential to increase rainfall in some areas. "The effect of La Nina on rainfall in Indonesia is not similar, both spatially and temporally, depending on the season or month, region, and the strength of La Nina itself," he said.

Apart from the influence of the monsoon wind circulation and climate anomalies in the Pacific Ocean, the strengthening of rainfall in Indonesia was also influenced by the propagation of the equatorial atmosphere waves from west to east in the form of MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and Kelvin waves, or from east to west in the form of Rossby waves.

The results of the analysis of the latest atmospheric dynamics conditions showed that there was MJO activity above the Indonesian territory, which was a cluster/collection of clouds with the potential for rain.

The activities of La Nina and MJO at the same time could contribute significantly to the formation of rain clouds in Indonesian territory.

Based on the aforementioned conditions, BMKG predicted that in the next week there will be an increase in rainfall with a heavy intensity which can be accompanied by lightning or thunder and strong winds.

Head of BMKG's Data and Information Section, Hang Nadim, Suratman, explained that the effect of La Nina is not very significant in Riau Islands.

"Maybe because our area is an archipelago, but people are still advised to stay alert and be careful of the effect that can be caused by extreme weather conditions such as floods, landslides, flash floods, puddles, strong winds, fallen trees, and slippery roads," he said. Suratman.